On provisional results of demographic situation in Latvia in 2007
The data of Central Statistical Bureau show that in 2007 the positive trend in the creation of new families is continuing and the number of newborns is increasing. However, due to the number of deaths exceeding births, as well as due to emigration from Latvia, mainly to other European Union countries, the number of population continues to decrease. At the end of the year it will be approximately 2 million 270 thousand, or less by 11.6 thousand persons than at the beginning of the year.
Statistical data characterizing demographic situation in 10 months of this year and their estimation for November and December allows to forecast that this year the number of born children will be more by 1150 children than in previous year 2006, or more by 2 thousand compared to 2005. The number of newborns might be 23.4 thousand. With the increase of the number of births, the relative birth indicator (births per 1000 population) will also increase, and it could be 10.3 (in 2006- 9.7).
The number of deaths in 2007 will be approximately 33 thousand or the same as a year before. However, taking into account that the number of population decreases, the relative death indicator (deaths per 1000 population) will slightly increase, and will make up approximately 14.54 (in 2006- 14.47).
As the total of deaths exceeds the number of births, in the result the number of population in 2007 will decrease by 9.7 thousand persons compared to 10.8 thousand persons in 2006.
Provisional data on the number of registered births and deaths in 2006 and 2007 by months are depicted in the chart (November and December of 2007- estimation of the CSB).
The number of births and deaths in 2006 and 2007 by months
Since 2001 the number of marriages registered in Latvia increases. In 2007 it will exceed 15 thousand and it will be more by 6.3 thousand marriages than in 2001. Compared to 2006
this year could be registered more by 1000 marriages.
Traditionally, as it is every year, also this year the most marriages were registered in August (2633) and July (2584).
The increase of marriages could be the coefficient for the trend of birth increase observed in the last years, and which could continue in the next years. However, it must be mentioned that in Latvia there is very high ratio of children born to parents who have not registered the marriage- 43%. Rather often the actual cohabitation of child’s parents is not legally registered which is a widespread phenomenon in many other European countries.
In 2007 new trend has appeared in the inter-state long-term migration of population: The number of immigrants is increasing and the volume of emigration is becoming more stable. In 2007 the number of persons who arrived to Latvia from other countries for permanent stay or for at least one year will reach approximately 3200 persons (more by 440 persons than in 2006), and the number of persons who left Latvia for permanent stay in other countries- approximately 5200 (less by 100 persons than in 2006). It must be taken into account that in the long-term emigration statistics only those persons are shown who have informed about leaving the country for more than one year or for permanent stay.
The decrease of the number of population this year could be 1.9 thousand persons (in 2006- 2451 persons) as the emigration is exceeding immigration.
Inter-state migration trends (the number of immigrants and emigrants) in 2006 and 2007 by quarters are shown in the chart (IV quarter of 2007- estimation of the CSB).
The number of inter-state immigrants and emigrants in 2006 and 2007 by quarters
Data on the changes of the number of population in cities under state jurisdiction and in districts in nine months of 2007 show that in most cities under state jurisdiction and in districts, excluding Jūrmala city, and Jelgava, Ogre and Rīga districts, it has decreased. If the number of population in the country during this time has decreased by 0.38% on the whole, in Daugavpils district it has decreased by 2.0%, in the city of Daugavpils- by 1.7%, in Krāslava district- by 1.5% and in Preiļi district- by 1.3%.
The number of deaths in all cities and districts, excluding Rīga district, exceeds the number of births.
Within nine months of this year in the result of migration the number of population has increased by 299 persons in Jūrmala, in Aizkraukle district- by 82 persons, in Jelgava district- by 433 persons, in Ogre district- by 701 persons, in Rīga district- by 5225 and in Tukums district- by 150 persons. In other cities and districts, in the result of migration, this number has decreased.
Prepared by Population Statistics Section