GDP has grown by 3.0 % in the 1st quarter
Data compiled by the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) show that in the 1st quarter of 2019, compared to the 1st quarter of 2018, the gross domestic product (GDP) (seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data) increased by 3.0 %. In the 1st quarter GDP at constant prices was EUR 6.8 billion.
As compared to the previous quarter, GDP (seasonally and calendar adjusted data) fell by 0.1 %.
GDP changes at constant prices in the 1st quarter of 2017 – 1st quarter of 2019
(as per cent)
In the 1st quarter of 2019, GDP at current prices comprised EUR 6 828.2 million EUR
(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)
GDP changes in the 1st quarter of 2019 by kind of economic activity
In the 1st quarter of 2019 manufacturing increased by 5.0 %. Changes of manufacturing volume in largest manufacturing sectors (total of 56 %) were different: growth in manufacturing of wood and articles of wood (of 8.1 %) and manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (of 13.4 %) had a positive impact. But reduction was observed in manufacture of food products (of 2.1 %) and manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products (of 4.6 %).
In electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply manufacturing volume fell by 18.5 %, of which in production and distribution of electricity – by 17.2 % and in steam and air conditioning supply – by 23.8 %.
Construction production volume rose by 7.4 %. Volume of building construction increased by 4.8 %, specialized construction activities – by 20.5 %, but civil engineering fell by 2.4 %.
Retail trade increased by 3.8 %, of which trade in food products – by 1.1 %, but trade in non-food products (including sale of automotive fuel at gas stations) – by 5.5 %. Wholesale trade, retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles rose by 8.2 %, but wholesale – by 7.0 %.
In transport and storage sector increase of 4.0 % was promoted by growth in freight transport by 5.1 %, rise in passenger traffic by 1.6 %, increase in warehousing and support activities for transportation by 2.6 % and in postal and courier activities by 28.7 %.
Accommodation and catering services grew by 4.3 %, of which accommodation experienced drop of 0.7 %, but catering – increased by 6.1 %.
Increase of exports of computer programming and information services of 24 % (at current prices) continue to positively affect development of services of information and communication sectors.
Services of information and communication services grew by 7.6 %, including growth of 11.8 % in computer programming and consulting, of 5.9 % in telecommunication services and of 3.9 % in information services.
In financial and insurance activities rise of 7.1 % was ensured by increase of value added of monetary financial institutions, which was affected by increase of profit of financial instruments trading, as well as significant reduction of expenditure (mainly, commission expenses, other administrative expenses).
Increase of administrative and support service activities of 8.2 %, which was affected by rise of 29.3 % in labour recruitment and provision of personnel sector, growth of 12.2 % in rental and leasing services sector, but decrease of 4.4 % in security and investigation activities.
In the 1st quarter of 2019 the volume of taxes on products (value added tax, excise and customs taxes) increased by 5.4 %.
Rather small increase estimates in separate sectors were affected by rise of consumer prices, producer prices and services prices.
(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)
GDP changes in the 1st quarter of 2019 by kind of expenditure
As household income continued to increase, in the 1st quarter of 2019 household expenses for final consumption, compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year, rose by 3.0 %. Household expenditure on food products rose by 4.0 %, on transport (public transport, purchase and exploitation of transport vehicles) – by 2.8 %, expenditure on recreation and culture – by 5.6 %. Households' expenditure on housing remained at the level of the previous year, which were made up by expenditure on rentals for housing, expenditure in maintenance and repair of the dwelling, water supply, electricity, gas and other fuels.
Government final consumption expenditure grew by 2.4 %.
Investment in gross fixed capital rose by 8.0 %. Development in the construction sector promoted investment in dwellings and other buildings and structures by 7.1 %. Investment in machinery and equipment (of which in transport vehicles) increased by 9.3 % and in intellectual property products (research, computer software, databases, copyrights, etc.) – by 8.9 %.
Exports of goods and services at current prices was EUR 172 million larger than imports, which was ensured by positive external balance of services.
In the 1st quarter, exports of goods and services rose by 3.6 %, of which exports of goods (69 % of total exports) by 4.5 % and exports of services by 1.2 %.
Imports of goods and services fell by 0.8 %. Imports of goods, which comprises 86 % of total imports, has risen by 0.8 %, but imports of services – decreased by 9.2 %.
(At current prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)
Compared to the 1st quarter of 2018, in the 1st quarter of 2019 compensation of employees at current prices grew by 11.2 %, of which total wages and salaries – by 9.7% and employers' social security contributions – by 17.9%. The sharpest increase in compensation of employees was registered in construction – by 18.4 %, commercial services sector – by 13.7 %, but in services sector in total – by 10.1%.
Total wages and salaries and changes
Gross operating surplus and mixed income increased by 0.4 %, whereas the balance of taxes on production and imports and subsidies went up by 13.0 %.
GDP changes in the Baltic countries
(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted, as % of the corresponding period of the previous year)
Some changes may be made to the government sector estimates, balance of payments and financial services sector, moreover indices of business services will be taken into account in the GDP calculations and balancing of the quarterly national accounts on the 85th day after the reference quarter. The updated information will be available in the CSB databases on 21 June.
Calculations of quarterly data of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are made in line with the methodology of the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010). Main data sources used in calculations are:
Surveys of quarterly and monthly enterprises and institutions;
Labour Force Survey;
Data from the Ministry of Finance, the Treasury and the State Revenue Service;
Data from the Bank of Latvia and the Financial and Capital Market Commission;
Data from the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Economics.
The GDP statistics from production and expenditure approach is calculated at current prices (registration and calculations are made at the actual prices of the respective period) and constant prices. The indicators at constant prices are expressed at prices of the previous calendar year and prices of the reference year (chain-linked).
To calculate GDP at the prices of the previous calendar year the actual prices of the previous calendar year are used as a base and the “annual average” method (where each running quarter (or year) is calculated at the average prices of the previous year) is used. To make the calculations, various deflators are used. Both volume indices and price indices may be used as deflators. The following price indices are used: consumer price index, producer price index, construction cost index, services producer price index, price indices of agricultural products, export unit value index, import unit value index. The following volume indices are used: change in number of employees and change in natural indicators (e.g., in removals, passenger number, freights, etc.).
To calculate GDP at the prices of the reference (base) year (currently, prices of 2010) the indices calculated from the GDP indicators at the prices of the previous year are used to chain-link the calculated volume indices with 2010.
GDP from the income approach is calculated at current prices only.
The published data are adjusted in line with the Guidelines for CSB Revision Policy. The adjustments are made due to receipt of specified information as well as latest administrative data, inclusion of new economically active enterprises and institutions in surveys, specification of economic activity of sector of enterprises.