Press Release

GDP has grown by 2.9 % in the 3rd quarter

Data compiled by the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) show that in the 3rd quarter of 2019, compared to the 3rd quarter of 2018, the gross domestic product (GDP) (seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data) increased by 2.9 %. In the 3rd quarter GDP at current prices was EUR 8.1 billion.

As compared to the previous quarter, GDP (seasonally and calendar adjusted data) rose by 0.7 %.

GDP changes at constant prices in the 3rd quarter of 2017 – 3rd quarter of 2019
(as per cent)

graph - GDP changes at constant prices in the 3rd quarter of 2017 – 3rd quarter of 2019

 

In the 3rd quarter of 2019, GDP at current prices comprised EUR 8 061.4 million EUR
In the 3rd quarter of 2019, GDP at current prices comprised EUR 8 061.4 million EUR

Production approach
(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)

GDP changes in the 3rd quarter of 2019 by kind of economic activity

graph - GDP changes in the 3rd quarter of 2019 by kind of economic activity

 

In the 3rd quarter of 2019, according to provisional calculations, there was a significant rise of 29.5 % in agriculture (mainly in crop production), but in forestry and logging and fishery there was a drop of 3.7 % and 18.7 %.

In mining there was a decrease both in quarrying of sand and gravel of 21.2 % and in quarrying of peat – of 7.3 %.

Manufacture of food products has increased for the first time since 2nd quarter of 2018.

Value added of manufacturing has grown by 4.1 %. It was promoted by the increase of production output in four largest manufacturing sectors: manufacture of fabricated metal products, manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (of 21.3 %), production of building materials (of 2.5 %), manufacture of food products (of 0.9 %).

But decrease of 2.7 % was observed in manufacture of wood and of products of wood, which is the largest manufacturing sector. Also fall in manufacture of chemicals and chemical products of 6.9 %, manufacture of wearing apparel – of 6.7 %, manufacture of rubber and plastic products – of 5.0 % and manufacture of beverages – of 4.3 % left negative impact on the development of sector.

Construction production volume rose by 5.9 %. Growth of construction output was observed in almost all sectors: construction of buildings rose by 11.7 %, civil engineering – by 2.1 % (of which, increase of 3.0 % was observed in construction of roads and railways, of 24.0 % – in construction of other civil engineering projects, but construction of utility projects negatively affected development of sector – there was a drop of 4.6 %).

Since the 1st quarter of 2017, volume of construction of roads and railways grows.

Specialised construction activities were carried out more by 2.4 % than last year.

Retail trade increased by 1.9 %, of which trade in food products – by 0.1 %, but trade in non-food products (including sale of automotive fuel at gas stations) – by 3.0 %. Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles rose by 13.3 %, but wholesale trade – by 6.6 %.

In transport and storage sector decrease of 4.6 % was promoted by drop in freight transport by 5.4 %, fall in warehousing and support activities for transportation by 12.7 %, rise in passenger traffic by 7.3 %, increase in postal and courier activities by 23.8 %.

Volume of accommodation and catering services grew by 9.4 %, of which accommodation – of 5.3 %, but catering – increased by 11.3 %.

Development of information and communication services sector has decreased by 0.3 %, of which in telecommunication sector – by 9.0 %, but increase was observed in computer programming and consulting – of 2.8 % and in information services – of 6.2 %.

A drop of 14.3 % in financial and insurance activities affected all sectors: financial service activities reduced by 14.1 %, insurance, reinsurance and pension funding – by 12.7 %, but activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities – by 15.3 %. The largest impact on the fall of sector was left by reduction of the value added of monetary financial institutions which was determined by rapid growth of expenditure (mainly, commission expenses, other administrative expenses). Fall in insurance, reinsurance and pension funding was affected by increase of retirement capital paid in  private pension plan (3rd pillar), while in non-life insurance there was a slight rise.

Volume of professional, scientific and technical activities rose by 8.2 %, of which: activities of head offices; management consultancy activities – by 20.6 %, architectural, engineering, technical testing and analysis services – by 11.8 %, professional, scientific and technical activities – by 16.8 %, while drop of 2.3 % was observed in advertising and market research.

In the 3rd quarter of 2019 the volume of taxes on products (value added tax, excise and customs taxes) decreased by 0.4 %.

 

Expenditure approach
(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)

GDP changes in the 3rd quarter of 2019 by kind of expenditure

graph - GDP changes in the 3rd quarter of 2019 by kind of expenditure

As purchasing power of households continued to increase, in the 3rd quarter of 2019 household expenses for final consumption, compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year, rose by 5.1 %. Household expenditure on purchase of food products rose by 0.9 %, on transport (public transport, purchase and exploitation of transport vehicles) – by 9.6 %, expenditure on recreation and culture – by 6.9 %. Household expenditure on dwelling, which are made up by expenditure on rentals for housing, expenditure on maintenance and repair of the dwelling, water supply, electricity, gas and other fuels, rose by 3.1 %. These groups of expenditure are made up by 58 % of total household expenditure.

Government final consumption expenditure grew by 3.2 %.

Investment in gross fixed capital rose by 4.8 %. Investment in dwellings, other buildings and structures grew by 5.6 %. Investment in machinery and equipment (of which in transport vehicles) increased by 1.1 % and in intellectual property products (research, computer software, databases, copyrights, etc.) – by 17.4 %.

In the 3rd quarter, exports of goods and services rose by 5.6 %, of which exports of goods (69 % of total exports) by 5.5 % and exports of services by 5.9 %.

Since the 1st quarter of 2017, exports indicators of other economic activity show positive trend, which mainly is made up by technical, trade-related and other economic activity services, professional and management services (17 % of services exports).

Imports of goods and services grew by 1.0 %. Imports of goods, which comprises 84 % of total imports, has risen by 1.0 %, but imports of services – by 0.6 %.

 

Income approach
(At current prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)

Compared to the 3rd quarter of 2018, in the 3rd quarter of 2019 compensation of employees at current prices grew by 9.1 %, of which total wages and salaries – by 9.2 % and employers' social security contributions – by 8.6%. The sharpest increase in compensation of employees was registered in construction – by 14.1 %, information and communication services – by 9.8 % and manufacturing – by 8.7 %.

 

Total wages and salaries and changes

Graph - Total wages and salaries and changes

Gross operating surplus and mixed income increased by 1.8 %, whereas the balance of taxes on production and imports and subsidies went up by 3.7 %.

 

GDP changes in the Baltic countries
(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted, as % of the corresponding period of the previous year)

Graph- GDP changes in the Baltic countries

 

Possible changes in calculations of government sector, balance of payments and sectors of financial services, as well as services producer indices will be taken into account in GDP calculations and balancing of quarterly national accounts on the 85th day after the reference quarter. The updated information will be available in the CSB databases on 20 December.

 

Methodological information

Calculations of quarterly data of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are made in line with the methodology of the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010). Main data sources used in calculations are:

  • Surveys of quarterly and monthly enterprises and institutions;

  • Labour Force Survey;

  • Data from the Ministry of Finance, the Treasury and the State Revenue Service;

  • Data from the Bank of Latvia and the Financial and Capital Market Commission;

  • Data from the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Economics.

The GDP statistics from production and expenditure approach is calculated at current prices (registration and calculations are made at the actual prices of the respective period) and constant prices. The indicators at constant prices are expressed at prices of the previous calendar year and prices of the reference year (chain-linked).

To calculate GDP at the prices of the previous calendar year the actual prices of the previous calendar year are used as a base and the “annual average” method (where each running quarter (or year) is calculated at the average prices of the previous year) is used. To make the calculations, various deflators are used. Both volume indices and price indices may be used as deflators. The following price indices are used: consumer price index, producer price index, construction cost index, services producer price index, price indices of agricultural products, export unit value index, import unit value index. The following volume indices are used: change in number of employees and change in natural indicators (e.g., in removals, passenger number, freights, etc.).

To calculate GDP at the prices of the reference (base) year (currently, prices of 2015) the indices calculated from the GDP indicators at the prices of the previous year are used to chain-link the calculated volume indices with 2015.

GDP from the income approach is calculated at current prices only.

The published data are adjusted in line with the Guidelines for CSB Revision Policy. The adjustments are made due to receipt of specified information as well as latest administrative data, inclusion of new economically active enterprises and institutions in surveys, specification of economic activity of sector of enterprises.

 

Media requests:
Communication Section
E-mail:
media@csb.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366621, +371 27880666

More information on quarterly data:
Gita Ķiņķevska

Quarterly National Accounts Section
E-mail: Gita.Kinkevska@csb.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366791

 

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