Press Release

In the 3rd quarter, GDP grew by 4.7 %

Data compiled by the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) show that in the 3rd quarter of 2018, compared to the 3rd quarter of 2017, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4.7 %, according to seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data. At current prices, GDP constituted EUR 7.8 billion in the 3rd quarter.

Compared to the previous quarter, GDP rose by 1.7 % (according to seasonally and calendar adjusted data).

GDP changes in Q3 2016–Q3 2018
(at constant prices, as per cent)

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In the 3rd quarter of 2018, GDP at current prices constituted EUR 7 760.5 million

30112018_IKP_2_en.png

 

Production approach

(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)

 

Changes of GDP in Q3 2018 by main kind of economic activity

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In the 3rd quarter of 2018, compared to the 3rd quarter of 2017, value added of forestry and logging grew by 27 %. The notable rise compensated the decline in agriculture and fishing.

Comparatively low upturns in several activities were influenced by the increase in consumer, producer and business service prices.

Manufacturing went up by 1 %. The most notable increase – of 6 % – was recorded in manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork. Decline, in turn, was registered in manufacture of food products and manufacture of non-metallic mineral products (of 5 %), followed by manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (4 %), and manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment (3 %).

Construction value added increased by 10 %. Construction of buildings grew by 9 %, civil engineering by 6 %, while specialised construction activities by 20 %.

Retail trade went up by 2 %, of which retail sale of food grew by 4 % and retail sale of non-food products by 2 %. Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles increased by 2 %, while wholesale fell by 1 %.

In transportation and storage, there was a growth of 8 %, which was influenced by the rise of 8 % in freights and of 7% in warehousing and support activities for transportation. Passenger transportation shows a rise of 11 %, and postal and courier activities of 16 %.

Accommodation and food service activities went up by 4 %, of which accommodation by 9 % and food service activities by 2 %.

Information and communications rose by 14 %, of which computer programming, consultancy and related activities by 17 % and telecommunications by 13 %.

Information shows an increase exceeding 14 % already for the third quarter in a row.

In financial and insurance activities, rise was recorded in insurance, reinsurance and pension funding (of 10 %). In financial service activities, significant increase was recorded in profit from financial instruments trading (four times, compared to the 3rd quarter of the previous year) and decline was observed in commissions and other administrative expenses. The changes resulted in a rise of the sector value added of 0.8 %. Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities rose by 0.9 %.

Administrative and support service activities grew by 13 %, of which rental and leasing activities by 24 %, employment activities by 22 %, and office administrative, office support and other business support activities by 6 %.

In the 3rd quarter of 2018, the volume of taxes on products (value added tax, excise and customs taxes) increased by 8 %.

 

Expenditure approach


(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)

 

GDP changes in Q3 2018 by main kind of expenditure

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Compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year, in the 3rd quarter household expenditure on food products rose by 6 %, on transport (public transport, purchase and exploitation of transport vehicles) by 3 %, on recreation and culture by 10 %, and on housing by 3 %.

Government final consumption expenditure grew by 4 %.

Investment in the gross fixed capital formation grew by 13 %, of which investments in dwellings and other buildings and structures by 10 %, in machinery and equipment (incl. in vehicles) by 15 % and in intellectual property products (research, computer software, databases, copyrights, etc.) by 27 %.

In the 3rd quarter, exports of goods and services went up by 1 %, of which exports of goods by 1 % and exports of services by 0.2 %.

Exports of information and computer services at current prices rose by 12 %.

Imports of goods and services grew by 3 %. Imports of goods increased by 4 %, while the total imports of services fell by 2 %, which was due to the decline in information, financial and computer services imports.

 

Income approach

(at current prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted data)

Compared to the 3rd quarter of 2017, in the 3rd quarter of 2018 the total compensation of employees increased by 11 %, including rise of 10 % in total wages and salaries and social security contributions of employers by 15 %. The rise was promoted by the increase in wage and salary fund in information and communication (of 20 %), construction (14 %), and services sectors (10 %). Gross operating surplus and mixed income increased by 6 %, while the balance of taxes on production and imports and subsidies went up by 13 %.

Total wage and salary fund and changes thereof

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GDP changes in the Baltic states
(at constant prices, seasonally and calendar non-adjusted, as % of the corresponding period of the previous year)

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Possible changes in calculations of government sector, balance of payments and sectors of financial services, as well as services producer indices will be taken into account in GDP calculations and balancing of quarterly national accounts on the 85th day after the reference quarter. The updated information will be available in the CSB database on 21 December.

 

Methodological information

Quarterly calculations of the GDP are made in line with the methodology of the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010), and the main data sources used in calculations are:

  • quarterly and monthly surveys of enterprises and institutions;

  • Labour Force Survey data;

  • data of the Ministry of Finance, the Treasury, and State Revenue Service;

  • data of the Bank of Latvia and Financial Capital and Market Commission;

  • data of the Institute of Agricultural Resources and Economics.

The GDP from production and expenditure approach is calculated at current prices (registration and calculations are made at the actual prices of the respective period) and constant prices. The indicators at constant prices are expressed at prices of the previous calendar year and prices of the reference year (chain-linked).

 

To calculate GDP at the prices of the previous calendar year the actual prices of the previous calendar year are used as a base and the “annual average” method (where each running quarter is calculated at the average prices of the previous year) is used.  To make the calculations, various deflators are used.  Both volume indices and price indices may be used as deflators.  The following price indices are used: consumer price index, producer price index, construction cost index, services producer price index, price indices of agricultural products, export unit value index, import unit value index.  The following volume indices are used: change in number of employees and change in natural indicators (e.g., in removals, passenger number, freights, etc.).

 

To calculate GDP at the prices of the reference (base) year (currently 2010), the indices calculated from the GDP indicators at the prices of the previous year are used to chain-link the calculated volume indices with 2010.

 

GDP from the income approach is calculated at current prices only.

 

The published data are adjusted in line with the Guidelines for CSB Revision Policy. The adjustments are made due to receipt of specified information as well as latest administrative data, inclusion of new economically active enterprises and institutions in surveys, specification of economic activity of sector of enterprises.

 

Media requests:
Information and Communication Section
E-mail:
media@csb.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366621, +371 27880666

More information on data:
Gita Ķiņķevska
Quarterly National Accounts Section

E-mail: Gita.Kinkevska@csb.gov.lv
Phone: +371 67366791

 

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