On provisional results of demographic situation in Latvia in 2008

17.12.2008

At the end of 2008 number of Latvia population will comprise 2 million and 261 thousand or 9.5 thousand less than at the beginning of the year, according to statistical data. Number of newborn this year will exceed 24 thousand and will be 1.1 thousand higher than a year ago.

Statistical data characterising demographic situation of 10 months of this year and November and December estimations allows forecasting that, number of newborn this year may comprise 24.4 thousand – approximately 1130 children or 4.8 per cent more than in 2007.

Compared to 1998, when birth rate was the lowest of all after-war period, number of newborn in 2008 will be almost 6 thousand higher. With the increase of the number of newborn, also crude  birth rate  (births per 1000 population) grows, and compared to 10.2 in 2007 it may comprise 10.9.

Compared to the average birth rates in the country the highest will be in four biggest cities out of seven and in seven districts out of 26. Differences of this indicator (the highest and the lowest indicators) in cities under state jurisdiction and districts are shown in diagram.

Number of births per 1000 population in 2008 (expected) (Cities under state jurisdiction and districts with the highest and with the lowest indicators)

Compared to 2007 birth in 2008 will increase in six biggest cities out of seven (except Rezekne) and in 24 districts out of 26 (except districts of Kuldiga and Ludza).

Mortality in this year has decreased, according to statistical data. Number of deaths in 2008 will be almost two thousand or 5.2 per cent lower than in 2007. Taking into account that, number of population is decreasing, crude death rate (deaths per 1000 population) will reduce slightly less and will comprise 13.8 (in 2007 – 14.5).

Compared to the average death rates in the country lower mortality will be in six biggest cities out of seven (except Jurmala) and in eight districts out of 26. Differences of this indicator (the highest and the lowest indicators) in cities under state jurisdiction and districts are shown in diagram.

Number of deaths per 1000 population in 2008 (expected) (Cities under state jurisdiction and districts with the highest and with the lowest indicators)

The number of deaths still exceeds the number of newborn, resulting in reduction of the population number in 2008. If compared to the 9.8 thousand in 2007 the number of population has decreased by 6.9 thousand persons.

Decrease of the number of Latvia population in 2008 was influenced also by the long-term international emigration prevalence over the immigration. Provisional number of persons coming to Latvia for permanent stay or for a stay for at least one year in 2008 will be approximately 3.8 thousand persons (about 0.3 thousand more than in 2007), but number of persons leaving the country with an aim to change the place of residence – around 6.4 thousand (2.2 thousand persons more than in 2007). Long-term migration statistics include only those persons who reported that are leaving the country for more than 1 year or for permanent residence in other country. Comparison of the indicators of two last years shows that, in 2008 statistics cover long-term migrants more fully.

Due to the emigration prevalence over the immigration decrease of the population number this year may comprise about 2.6 thousand persons (in 2007 – 642 persons).

Number of population due to the migration in nine moths of this year grew only in Jurmala (by 390 persons), as well as in districts of Jelgava (246), Ogre (295) and Riga (3956). In other cities under state jurisdiction and districts this indicator due to the migration decreased.

Compared to the time period since 2001, contrary trend characterises the number of marriages. If in 2001 – 2007 number of marriages grew from 9.3 thousand to 15.5 thousand or 1.7 times, in 2008 only slightly more than 13 thousand marriages will be registered. Decrease of the number of marriages in the nearest years may leave negative influence on birth rate.

With death constant prevalence over the births, as well as due to the population emigration number of Latvia population continues to reduce. At the end of the year the indicator will comprise about 2 million 261 thousand or 9.5 thousand less than at the beginning of 2008.

Prepared by Social Statistics Department
Population Statistics Section
Tel. +371 67366900
Uldis Ušackis