Changes in the calculation of gross domestic product were carried out

30.09.2014

Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) has carried out recalculation of annual and quarterly national accounts time series from 1995. The results obtained prove negative impact of emigration of Latvian population on the estimates of state economics during the last years established in Population and Housing Census 2011.

The recalculation was carried out to implement transformation of the data of the system of national accounts according to new methodological principles in compliance with the Regulation (EU) No 549/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2013 on the requirements of the European system of national and regional accounts (ESA 2010).

ESA 2010 is developed in compliance with the System of National Accounts SNA 2008 confirmed by the United Nations Statistical Commission in 2010, thus ensuring availability of harmonized and comparable information on macroeconomics to the users of all levels worldwide. Not changing previous key principles of these documents, changes were introduced both in SNA 2008 and ESA 2010 which help better to perceive development trends in world economics and expression of globalisation processes. All European Union (EU) member states finish transformation of the data of system of national accounts according to the new methodological principles on September 2014. Statistical office of the EU Eurostat is planning to inform statistical data users on the results of recalculations carried out in member states in press conference on 17 October of this year.

Within the framework of the EU this information also helps to define political and administrative aims, because data of the system of national accounts are used:

  • for EU budgetary aims – for determination of instalment in the EU budget;
  • for fiscal policy – for comparisons of government budgetary deficit and debt levels;
  • for the EU subsidy policy;
  • for determination and analysis of macroeconomics imbalance procedure.

The same as statistical institutions of other EU member states, parallel to the implementation of methodological requirements ESA 2010, in calculations of national accounts CSB has used new data sources for the improvement of methodology used until now in order to eliminate some imperfections, which was indicated by the European Commission (EC) in a special disclaimer. Also data adjustment was carried out, commensurating results of the Population and Housing Census 2011 with key indicators of the system of national accounts.

Changes of values and their relative size by years differs significantly – from increase of gross domestic product (GDP) by 8.4% in 1995 to reduction of GDP by 0.2% in 2012. Changes of GDP in million euros and per cent over the previously published data in some years of the last decade can be found in the table.

Annual GDP changes in mln EUR and in per cent over the previously published data of national accounts

Factors affecting changes

 

2005

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Changes caused by methodology of ESA 2010

mln EUR

82

100

127

144

201

217

207

%

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.8

1.1

1.1

0.9

Impact of statistical adjustment – special disclaimer of the EC, Population Census 2011, regular revisions

mln EUR

716

1 491

1 387

153

-225

-231

-247

%

5.6

7.1

6.1

0.8

-1.2

-1.0

-1.1

Changes, total

mln EUR

798

1 591

1 513

296

-24

-14

-40

%

6.2

7.6

6.6

1.6

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

Short term and annual statistical data on gross domestic product can be found in the CSB database.
 
Detailed information on changes in calculation of national accounts is available here.

 

More information:
Intars Abražuns
Macroeconomics statistics department
Tel.: + 371 67366846